MOSCOW (AP) — President
Vladimir Putin has been slammed for arming rebels and fanning flames of
separatism in eastern Ukraine. But there is strong evidence recently that it's
just the opposite: He now wants to bring about a truce.
To do so, however, Putin
must face down nationalists at home pressuring him to send in troops to support
the rebels occupying town halls and border posts and fighting government forces
in eastern Ukraine after the new Ukrainian president ended a mainly one-sided
cease-fire.
Putin's strategic aims
have not changed: He wants to keep Ukraine at least partly in Russia's orbit
and prevent it from joining NATO.
But he is also mindful
of Russia's other global relationships, and he needs to move carefully to avoid
more sanctions from the European Union and the United States.
His solution? Try to
negotiate a truce in Ukraine while securing some long-term levers over Ukraine.
The Russian leader
scored a measure of success last month when the new Ukrainian president, Petro
Poroshenko, declared a cease-fire that some rebels accepted. While the truce
was frequently broken and failed to persuade the rebels to disarm, it set the
stage for consultations involving a former Ukrainian president, the Russian
ambassador, European officials and insurgent leaders.
The two rounds of peace
talks didn't produce any visible results, and Poroshenko canceled the truce on
Monday evening. But they brought together the warring parties for the first
time, an important success for Putin. The Kiev government had previously resisted
his calls to sit down with the rebels, whom they brand as
"terrorists."
On Wednesday, the
foreign ministers of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine called for restarting
the talks in an attempt to reach an agreement on a new cease-fire that would be
respected by both warring sides.
Leonid Kuchma, a former
Ukrainian president who has represented the government in the talks, is
well-known to Putin, who dealt closely with him for years. Another man at the
table was Kuchma's former chief of staff, Viktor Medvedchuk, who lives in
Russia and has close personal ties to Putin.
Putin's ultimate goal is
to get Kiev to appoint a Kremlin-friendly figure like Medvedchuk as a regional
boss in eastern Ukraine, and see him nurture close ties with Moscow. That may
not be immediately achievable, but other steps, like Poroshenko's promise to
increase the power of provincial authorities, could increase Russia's sway in
eastern Ukraine.
But Putin will need to
offer something in return, and his options are limited. Issuing a direct call
for the rebels to lay down their arms would sound like a betrayal of their
cause and shatter his carefully nurtured image of a tough leader who is ready
to stand up to the West.
Many of the rebels,
driven by their hatred of a Kiev government that they despise as a
"fascist junta," could also be reluctant to disarm.
And Poroshenko, for his
part, is facing strong public pressure for a quick military victory, meaning it
would be political suicide for him to heed Russian calls to extend the
cease-fire and withdraw his troops from the east.
When the mutiny in the
east began in mid-April following Russia's annexation of Crimea, some Kremlin
strategists might have thought that they could keep the tensions on a slow
burner to wring concessions from the Kiev government. But as the battles
intensified and the death toll climbed into the hundreds, the anger it has
generated is making it increasingly difficult to de-escalate the crisis.
Hawkish members of
Putin's inner circle have become increasingly demanding, and there are
increasing signs of discord at the top of the Russian leadership. Even if Putin
did try to soften his stance, it is far from clear that his lieutenants would
carry out his orders.
Putin's economic
adviser, Sergei Glazyev, has made a series of bellicose statements, including
his recent proposal to send Russian military jets to protect the rebels in
eastern Ukraine from government air raids. The Kremlin disavowed his words,
saying Glazyev was expressing his private opinion.
Other Russian hawks
could be working quietly behind the scenes, orchestrating covert assistance to
the rebels. At the border Wednesday, Associated Press journalists saw fresh
tracks — a sign that military vehicles had crossed from Russia into Ukraine.
The extent of Russian
involvement in the rebellion remains murky. Ukraine and the West say Russia has
fomented the insurgency with troops and weapons, including tanks and rocket
launchers. Moscow has denied sending any soldiers or military equipment and
insisted that Russians fighting in the east are private citizens.
If heavy weapons have
crossed the border from Russia into Ukraine as the U.S. says, they haven't made
any significant impact on the ground, where the Ukrainian military enjoys
massive military superiority over the rebels.
AP journalists in the
east have seen a few armored vehicles that the insurgents said they seized from
the government, but those could do little to the hundreds of tanks,
self-propelled howitzers and rocket launchers that the Ukrainian military has
deployed.
Rebel leaders have
pleaded with the Kremlin for military assistance, and some prominent Russian
nationalists have publicly taunted Putin for cowardice. Such criticism could
resonate with the broader Russian public, which has been heavily influenced by
Russian state television's characterization of the Kiev government as a
"fascist junta" that is killing Russian-speakers.
While the Kremlin has
recently moved to tone down the rhetoric in the news media, many Russians —
full of patriotic fervor after the annexation of Crimea in March — expect Putin
to take resolute action.
In a sense, Putin has
become a hostage of his own game of raising the stakes and fiery rhetoric, and
it could be hard for him to soften his posture toward Ukraine without eroding
his power.
___
Isachenkov has covered
Russia and other ex-Soviet nations for the AP since 1992.
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